Move McCain, Get Out Da Way!

I think I began covering the 2008 presidential election the moment after John Kerry conceded the race. I was explaining to a friend of mine that American presidential politics is like a year of watching wrestling. The new season begins and the old season ends on the same day, Wrestlemania. The presidential election is like a 4-year season that begins and ends on Election Day, every 4 years.

You don't have to be an expert in political analysis to figure out that the field of candidates from the Democrat Party is rather slim and will most likely be dominated by Senator Hillary Clinton. What's new and exciting here is that the nomination from the GOP is very much still up in the air. Early favorites were former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator John McCain. Both seemingly sold out their principles to stump for President Bush assuming they'd get the rub when he was ready to leave office.

Some folks keep touting Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger for president on the assumption that the Constitution will be amended allowing him to legally run for the office. I'm not one for bold pronouncements or temper tantrums but so help me God, if we amend the constitution to allow those born outside of the country to possibly become Commander-in-Chief of the single greatest armed forces in the world, I will learn a new language and move to Europe. I think I can live with socialism under those circumstances. If you've ever believed anything written in this space then believe this, allowing foreign born citizens to become American Presidents is a long term recipe for disaster.

Since the inauguration, the pundits have throw around some other names such as Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Governor Mitt Romney and former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich. But the speculative candidate that has really sparked the pundits’ imaginations is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. This is where the plot thickens.

According to Real Clear Politics analysis of a Hillary Vs Condi race, "If the match-up were held, according to an IBD/TIPP Poll, Hillary Clinton would beat Condi Rice 50% to 30%. But to see Campaign Condi as a nonstarter based on such polls is to engage in static analysis. In fact, that's a pretty fair showing for a potential candidate as unfamiliar to voters as the ex-president's wife is familiar."

This is absolutely true. Even in an age where news can be gathered from any number or sources there are still many Americans who haven't the foggiest clue who Condi Rice (or for that matter Barack Obama) are yet. Without any kind of campaigning or even acknowledgement that she is running Dr. Rice has managed to garner 30% percent of the likely voters. Imagine what will happen when Karl Rove is fully committed to the Rice campaign. After all, he got George W. Bush elected didn't he?

The major issue here is the McCain factor. According to Newsmax.com, "If the 2008 presidential election were held today, Arizona Sen. John McCain would defeat his New York colleague, Hillary Clinton, by a whopping 12-point margin, according to the latest poll by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Fifty-four percent of voters said they'd back McCain, with 42 percent supporting the former first lady, the Marist survey found.

851 registered voters were surveyed Feb. 14-16 on the McCain-Clinton match-up.

When matched against Mrs. Clinton, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani didn't do nearly as well, edging out the former first lady by just 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent.

With the poll's 3.5-percent margin of error, that's a statistical tie, Marist said.

Ironically, Giuliani would have a better chance getting the GOP nod. The survey found that 25 percent of registered Republicans or Republican-leaning independents backed him, while 21 percent backed McCain.

Mrs. Clinton would defeat Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, 51 percent to 43 percent."

The business and political world are not run by people who fancy themselves as risk takers per se. They like the safe bet and rarely does it seem that those in the powerful know ever take the long view of a situation. On the assumption that natural forces don't move these numbers too far from where they currently stand, McCain may end up benefiting from a whisper campaign in his favor. However, the future is not written and as I stated above, lots of things can happen between now and the primaries. The last time McCain faced off against a Rove contender he got is rear end handed to him by a host of dirty tricks and vicious rumors. I seriously doubt Rove has gotten religion since then and will play fair in '08.

My suggestion for McCain is to run at least through the Iowa caucus and then (assuming he loses) bow out gracefully and wait for Condi to tap him to be Vice President. If McCain insists on seeing his campaign through however, he's going to be hit hard by the Rove-Condi train and that will be the end of that.