A Different Shade of Cold War

Before September 11th the administration really had only two foreign policy goals. One was to depose Saddam Hussein and the other was to check China before it became a rival superpower. From what I've read, they really had no grand strategic vision for shaping international affairs, only stopgap measures and half-baked ideas on how to execute wars on the cheap. After September 11th, issues involving China went on the backburner as the US moved to confront the wave of Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East. The administration also used the “War on Terror” as an excuse to move up their plans to depose Saddam Hussein, which was done easily enough but then resulted in an urban guerilla war subsidized by Iran and a host of other countries. In the middle of all of this the North Koreans periodically shook their ballistic missiles at us and demanded a small sacrifice, namely a shrubbery…one that looks nice and is not too expensive (if you can name the movie I got that from give yourself 10 points).

Outside of “promoting Democracy in the Middle East,” which more or less is happening by accident or happenstance rather than by legitimate planning and strategizing, the US under George W. Bush hasn’t really defined an overall narrative for their dealings in world affairs. There is no theme or over-riding goal that brings us all together in the name of America. For example, the Cold War was defined by stopping the spread of communism, especially in South America and South East Asia. We “supported any friend” as they saying went and though mistakes were made and collateral damage incurred, eventually the Soviet Union fell and for intents and purposes we won. We don’t have that now, just this vague picture of the administration attempting to put out brush fires when they pop up, like in Lebanon currently. The revolution going on in Lebanon got thrown into the pot of “Democratizing the Middle East” but the fact is that the Lebanese had the matter well in hand and as can be seen in recent stories, they don’t want us involved in their affairs.

While the administration seeks to define a narrative for its foreign policy, the Russians seem to be instigating yet another cold war. I’ve eluded to this in past posts about how China and Russia are moving closer to a strategic partnership and that both are forming strong bonds with countries such as Iran and Venezuela. If you’ve ever played the game Risk, I think it’s easy to see what’s happening. Russia is slowly but surely building up strategic allies around the world in order to match the US in influence, power and strength. It’s the same as it was since the end of World War II but instead of spread communism, they are spreading Russoism, the belief or practice in Russia returning to its superpower status.

The latest example of Russia seeking to spread its influence while setting up elaborate checks against the US is in the aforementioned Venezuela. This from the Chicago Tribune, “BRASILIA -- The Bush administration says it is increasingly alarmed at a series of weapons purchases by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Venezuela has confirmed that it is buying 100,000 AK-47 rifles from Russia next month. But senior U.S. defense officials said intelligence reports conclude Venezuela also is in the process of a multibillion-dollar effort to buy other weapons.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, traveling Wednesday in South America, urged Chavez to reconsider the purchases.

"I can't imagine why Venezuela needs 100,000 AK-47s and I just personally hope that it doesn't happen," Rumsfeld told reporters in an appearance with Brazilian Vice President Jose Alencar. "And I can't imagine that if it did happen that it would be good for the hemisphere."”

Another example of Venezuela lining up to become a client state of Mother Russia comes from an article in the United Press International. “MOSCOW, March 23: Russia and Venezuela share close or identical views on key international problems, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The Moscow statement was circulated during a meeting held by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak during his visit to Caracas, Interfax reports.

Kislyak held ministerial consultations and a series of meetings on Monday and Tuesday with leading officials from the Venezuelan defense and mining ministries.

"The talks revealed a coincidence or closeness of positions on key international problems and the role of the United Nations as a central mechanism of maintaining peace and stability," the Foreign Ministry statement.”

One of the defining elements of the Cold War was that Europe needed to be protected from and advancing and hostile communist Soviet Union. Out of sheer necessity, the US had a strategic partnership with the countries of Western Europe and for the most part where the US went Western Europe followed. That is certainly no longer the case as Europe has been eagerly waiting the day when they could throw off the heavy hand of American protection and become their own powerful entity again. The EU has been making deals in much the same fashion as the US; they do what solely benefits them and to hell with the rest of the world.

Since the break-up of the Soviet Empire, Europe has been rushing to embrace their lost brethren in Moscow and have done what they could to welcome her back into fold. For example, this from Novosti, “MOSCOW, March 21 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization will pave the way for his country to economically integrate into the European Union, Economic Development & Trade Minister German Gref told reporters Monday, after talks with EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson.

Russia's WTO accession is the key to solving issues of economics and commerce, Mr. Gref pointed out. Only after gaining WTO membership will the nation be able to substantially expand and harmonize its trade rules with the EU, he argues.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to step up the negotiating process toward Russia's integration with the EU, in terms of security, culture, education, and scientific research as well as economics. Mr. Putin would like all contentious issues hindering the talks to be resolved as soon as possible, but, according to the minister, it seems unrealistic to get all necessary blueprints ready before the next EU-Russia summit in May. As for trade and economic issues, there is no major disagreement on any of them.

At their talks Monday, Messrs. Gref and Mandelson discussed outstanding problems in the EU-Russia relationship that needed to be addressed without delay. These have to do primarily with transit to Kaliningrad via Lithuania, phyto-sanitary regulations, and trans-Siberian flights.

Mr. Gref said Russia had committed itself to bringing payments for trans-Siberian flights in line with international standards by the year 2013 and that these commitments had been consolidated in a newly signed agreement with the EU.

The sides agreed to consider all these issues in greater detail at their next meeting in the latter half of April, Mr. Gref told the media.

The EU Trade Commissioner, for his part, reiterated the European Union's willingness to assist Russia in joining the WTO before the end of 2005. "We have a long way to go, but the objective is not unattainable, provided there is enough political will," Mr. Mandelson pointed out.”

The world is rapidly changing. The US government is filled with people whose entire perspective is shaped by a world born in the 50’s and died in the 80’s when the Berlin Wall came tumbling down. If the US doesn’t get wise to the new cold war brewing around them we will be equally surprised just as we were on 9/11 when yet another tragedy strikes. We’ve made some headway in gathering allies such as the newly democratic Ukraine and Iraq but it’s going to take more than a hodgepodge of elections and land invasions to secure the US through the next several years. If I can see the wagons circling from the EU to Russia to China to Venezuela, I’m wondering just what is it our leaders in Washington are looking at and more importantly what they are going to do about it?