Monday, September 26, 2005

Iran faces Security Council on nukes

Iran's referral to the Security Council has no teeth. This is an exercise in theater, nothing more. As I've reported in previous posts, the object for the US (and probably the Brits) is to lay the foundation for war against Iran. This is why Wolfowitz is in the World Bank and why Bolton is in the UN. What's interesting about this series of events as opposed to how Iraq played out is just how open and honest the opposition seems to be. When the US and the UK made their case against Iraq; France, Russia and China seemed to have been making their case for Iraq on "moral" ground when they really had a covert financial stake in keeping the Hussein regime in power. Here, Russia and China have clearly stated they have economic and energy interests vested in Iran and they categorically do not want the US blowing anything over there up nor do they want the UN to impose sanctions (which woudn't do any good anyway).

However the UN decides to handle this, the end result will still be the same - eventually the US will lose patience (sometime around the spring of 2007, when it's best to attack that region of the world) and they will create yet another coalition of the willing to move against the imminent danger looming in Tehran. It would be entertaining to watch the dramatic events unfold if we weren't talking about the death of countless people whom have no interest in going to war with America (the secular Iranian public).

Here's the story:

IRAN'S showdown with the West over its nuclear ambitions has taken a dramatic turn as the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency voted to report the country to the United Nations Security Council for violating its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The UN nuclear watchdog passed a resolution at the weekend requiring Iran to be reported to the Security Council at an unspecified date for failing to convince the agency its nuclear program was entirely peaceful.

The IAEA's governing board approved the resolution despite threats by Iran to begin enriching uranium.

British diplomats, backed by the US and the European Union, convinced the IAEA to take the initiative amid growing international concern over what is feared to be the Islamic state's covert weapons program.

A British resolution, passed by the IAEA's board at a meeting in Vienna, said there was an "absence of confidence" that Iran's atomic program was exclusively peaceful, which gave rise to questions "within the competence of the Security Council".

But the resolution did not say when Iran would be referred to the UN -- watering down an earlier draft that had called for the issue to be taken up immediately. Diplomats said that this would probably give Iran at least until the IAEA board met again in November to climb down.

The resolution was backed by 22 of the 35 members of the IAEA's governing board, with 12 abstentions and one vote against.

In an important victory for Western efforts to ratchet up the pressure on Tehran, China and Russia, which had strongly opposed the EU's proposed resolution, eventually abstained.

Venezuela was the only country to vote against it.

The UN could impose sanctions if it determined Iran violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty but the draft made no mention of what measures might be taken - apparently in recognition of Russian and Chinese opposition. As members of the Security Council, both countries wield vetoes.

Iran, which has denied it wants to build a bomb, immediately threatened retaliation. "Threat invokes threat," said Javad Vaeidi, head of the Iranian delegation, without giving more details.

Iran denies it is seeking atomic bombs and says its nuclear program is only for generating electricity. But it concealed its atomic fuel program from the IAEA for 18 years.

Matt Boland, the spokesman for the US mission, told reporters that the fact India backed the resolution showed New Delhi shared the "concern with Iran's established pattern of deception".

Russia is building a $US1 billion ($1.3 billion) nuclear reactor at Bushehr in Iran and has much to gain from Iran's plans to develop atomic energy. Moscow has long been an opponent of referring Iran to the Security Council.

China, which needs Iran's vast energy resources for its own booming economy, also opposes the Western drive against Iran.

Both countries fear a UN referral will cause the standoff over Iran's program to escalate into an international crisis.

Diplomats said yesterday the Iranian delegation had shown some board members and IAEA general director, Mohamed ElBaradei, two unsigned letters informing the IAEA what would happen if the EU resolution were approved.

One letter said Iran would begin enriching uranium, a process that produces fuel for atomic power plants or weapons, at an underground facility at Natanz. The second says Tehran would end short-notice inspections under a special NPT protocol.

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