When Bear Comes to Town

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If Russia continues on it’s path to become a pro-democracy/pro-capitalism nation, many US officials who made their bones as experts of how to run Russia in to ground may end up without a cause. There are quite a number of stories that seem to indicate that while they aren’t perfect by any means, Russia is trying very hard to reintegrate itself into the global economy without being perceived as what Ronald Reagan called, “The Evil Empire.”

First off and probably the most important in terms of rehabbing their collective image, Russia agreed on Monday to shut its military bases in the former Soviet state of Georgia by 2008. This seems somewhat like a mea culpa toward the increasingly West-leaning Caucasus region after the frightful events of the Ukrainian election. It would appear that Russia is willing to loosen it’s grip on and influence on the former Soviet states, which can only help it’s image in the face of US accusations that it does not favor democracy. It should also be of note that Georgia has allied itself with both the US and the EU so Russia probably made the most diplomatically sound choice here.

While Russia may be having difficulties keeping close ties with it’s former states, the Bear is having no problems making friends in other regions. Russia is reforming close ties with Syria and has recently decided to write-off 73 percent - $9.8 million - of Syria's debt. Russia has approached the debt write-off as part of a new strategy to return its influence to the Middle East and Central Asia. According to the terms of the deal (as reported by the Daily Star), Syria must reimburse $1.5 billion of the remaining $3.6 billion debt over 10 years, and the remaining $2.1 billion will be converted to Syrian pounds and made available to Russian businesses that want to invest in Syria or in joint projects. Syria will start repayments in July.

Syria has been on the Bush administrations target list since before we invaded Iraq. With Russia now looking over Syria’s shoulder and then having such a great economic stake and their development, the administration will have to think twice (thinking at all would help) before deciding on a Syrian adventure.

Russia is also courting another familiar friendship in the oil kingdom of Saudi Arabia. According to Novosti, “The Russian-Saudi inter-government commission on trade and economic cooperation, which concluded its meeting in Riyadh yesterday, decided to intensify cooperation, above all in the oil and gas industry, the peaceful exploration of outer space, and in the scientific and technological sphere in general.

Specific decisions were set out in a memorandum of the intentions members of Rosaviakosmos, Russia's aerospace agency, and of Saudi Arabia's King Abdel Aziz Science and Technology Center exchanged, Andrei Baklanov, the Russian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said on the telephone.

The members of the commission agreed to create, with time, a Russian-Saudi bank to facilitate mutual trade and promote economic cooperation.

Baklanov said opening a direct air service between Moscow and Riyadh was also discussed in that context.

A forum of the two countries' businessmen and experts took place in Riyadh simultaneously with the commission's meeting. Around 50 Russian business leaders took part in the forum. Women attended the forum for the first time in the history of Russian-Saudi business meetings.

"Contacts between Russian and Saudi business ladies proved very successful. They discussed issues of cooperation in the banking and insurance sectors, medicine, the perfume, and confectionary industries," said the ambassador.”

Russia has also been busy helping China and India mend fences and is vowing to continue to promote further trilateral relations with those two burgeoning economic powerhouses. The purpose of these talks is to strengthen their cooperation in energy and other issues and should help maintain stability and promote further economic growth and prosperity in the region.

There are many in the administration and our military that believe that the real looming threat to the US is China. I contend that if Russia continues to form these strong bonds with China, India, the Saudi’s, etc. it won’t matter how much a threat China is, there won’t be much we can logically do about it.

That being said, the most important news item featuring the Russians is their possible entry into the World Trade Organization. The plan on paper is for Russia to possibly join the WTO in 2006 if relevant talks are completed in 2005, Russian Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref said recently. In addition, according to some analysts, Russia’s energy exporters have their sights set on American markets. That would make sense as those same analysts have cited Russia as being the leader in potential oil and natural gas exports if they can ever maximize their output.

Like Cyndi Lauper once said, “Money changes everything,” and now that Russia is making a staunch effort to rehab herself in the eyes of the world, we may have to face the hard reality that we will have to actively compete in the marketplace with a viable and friendly Russia. The Bear has come to town bearing gifts instead of bombs. It’ll be interesting to see how the old Cold Warriors in Washington deal with life in a world where Russia isn’t building an empire with guns but rather with money.