Middle East Quick Hits

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A couple of things have happened in the Middle East over the past couple of days that I found pretty compelling. I thought rather than trying to do individual posts for each story I would sum them all up in one article. The one thread that runs through them all is this schizophrenic jig the Middle East seems to be doing toward democracy. I’ve written before that countries in the Middle East seem to do one step forward and two steps back when it comes to progressive movements toward peace, stability and democracy. US involvement throughout the region certainly plays a part in how these countries conduct themselves, for better or worse. Many people, depending on their political point of view, will argue that the changes we are seeing are happening despite US military intervention and make the argument that left in isolation, the Middle East will evolve toward regional stability and cooperation all on it’s own. The other half, suggest that left to their own devices, the Middle East will become consumed by fanatics who will eventually declare open warfare on the West. They further argue that US military intervention is the sole catalyst of change in that region. I would suggest that as usual, the answer is little from column A and a little from column B. While finding the root cause of why these events are happening is certainly interesting, I’m more fascinated by the fact that they are happening at all.

Iranian Minister Makes Historic Iraq Trip:

First and probably the most important story is on Iran's foreign minister, Kamal Kharrazi, making a historic trip to Baghdad on Tuesday. During this trip he met with Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, President Jalal Talabani and Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari. The big headline to date that came out these meetings is his vow to secure his country's borders to stop potential terrorists from entering Iraq. He also appears to be denying that the Iranian government is supporting the insurgency and stated that, "situation would have been much worse" if Tehran were actually supporting the terrorists as the US has claimed. Reading the article I smirked and thought that our government should take a page from Kharrazi’s rhetoric as he added, “We believe securing the borders between the two countries means security to the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Had I been drinking my usual evening glass of Arizona Green Tea I would have done a surefire comedic spit take when I read that line.

God only knows if he is telling the truth here. Back when the Shiites were rebelling under Moktada al-Sadr, it was reported that his followers were being supported by Iran/Hezbollah to undermine US efforts in Iraq and drive the occupying force out of the country a la the Soviets in Afghanistan. Since then Sadr hasn’t been in the news much and I haven’t found too many articles supporting Hezbollah’s role in the current wave of violence. From what I’ve been reading, the violence seems to be coming from the Sunni wing of disaffected Iraqi’s.

The other issue is that the Iranians most probably are looking to shore up an alliance with their Shiite brethren in Iraq’s new government rather than try to dismantle it with non-stop terrorist violence. It would appear that Iraq has become the maiden being wooed and fought over by the US and Iran in an effort to assert dominance in the reason. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in Iraq-Iranian relations as the months wear on.

Saudis Say They Have Enough Oil for Globe:

Hot Dog! Now make the with the wind/solar power plants and hydrogen cars.

This isn’t the first time I’ve read a story like this. A story that was buried in one paper stated that the problem wasn’t that Saudi Arabia doesn’t have enough oil but that they don’t have the technology to get to it all cheaply. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi who stated that his country has plenty of oil to meet global demand for the foreseeable future endorsed this yesterday. He stated that Saudi Arabia would raise production if prices rose too high. Al-Naimi echoed some of the Bush administrations position on energy (big surprise) we he stated that the challenge for the global energy market is greater than just increasing crude oil capacity. Specifically, he that the industry must remove refining bottlenecks, improve efficiency and conservation, and provide better data on supply and demand, among other things, until the world no longer relies on hydrocarbons to meet its energy needs. Lastly, oil producers would continue to rely on evolving technology to help producers extract oil at lower costs and use energy more efficiently.

This may have been the fruit of a meeting between President Bush and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah back in April. The Saudi’s have tried, as much as a dictatorship can try I suppose, to help the US in the War on Terror. While I’m sure neither the Saudi’s nor the oil companies are completely innocent of putting the average oil consumer over a barrel (cue rim shot), I think the real issue is the increased demand for oil among other countries rising on the development ladder. Most people when they make this argument name China and India but they aren’t the only countries with burgeoning oil needs. The Saudi royals must realize, and I’m sure they do, that it is in their best interest to placate the US when feasible rather than purposely make our lives more difficult. I think this story serves as a sign that the Saudi’s are not trying to distance themselves from Washington despite other unresolved issues like Israel/Palestine.

Historic decision to allow Kuwaiti women to vote:

I’m thrilled about this story. The Kuwaiti parliament voted 35 for and 23 against women being allowed to vote and run for parliamentary polls despite fierce resistance by Islamist and conservative MPs. This is certainly a step in the right direction. It may take another 100 years but who knows, we may yet see something like a liberal democracy in the Middle East. Hopefully, despite Islamic holdouts, the greater population of that region will come to understand that you can only better your civilization when you increase your homegrown by potential in allowing women to participate in civil affairs (despite Ann Coulters negative opinion of women voters).

Egypt’s Nazif optimistic on free trade pact with US:

The United States and Egypt are once again looking at negotiating a free trade agreement but haven’t decided when to begin, according to Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif.

Economic experts report that a comprehensive free trade pact between the two countries could boost the output of Egypt’s economy by three percent. The US on the other hand would benefit far less financially. However, economic gain may not be the primary reason for wanting to establish a free trade agreement Egypt. The US might benefit from better relations with an Arab state that is a political, economic and cultural role model for the Middle East. One would assume that the more consumer driven societies develop throughout the world, the greater our safety will increase. Essentially this may be one the many PR campaigns that can boost our image among states that hold us in such contempt.

So other than a polio epidemic in Yemen and some saber rattling at Syria to close their borders into Iraq, that’s the news out of the Middle East for this week. Like my pappy used to say, “It ain't half bad…but it ain't half good neither.”