Playing Chess in the Middle East

I’ve often compared the country of Iraq to a chessboard in which we are playing against a conglomeration of enemies under the banner of Islamic fundamentalism/Pan-Arabism. I think my analysis is incomplete. Iraq is a piece on the greater chessboard of the Middle East and Central Asia. Despite the on-going terrorist attacks by al Qaeda regional leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, I believe in a strategic sense, we have firmly taken the Iraq piece. I know it’s not perfect over there but life seldom is and yet it moves on. Anyone that believes a solid victory in Iraq means the end of terrorist attacks is not living in the real world. For all intents and purposes, we’re nearly done with Iraq.

So in the game of global chess, what is our next move? Iran has aligned itself with Russia and China while engaging in limited diplomacy with the European Union. The Iran piece is pretty much blocked. We can threaten but the fact remains that war in Iran is most likely not going to happen. It doesn’t have to. The Syrian piece has been exposed and we are primed to take it.

The road to Syria takes us through Lebanon. On Monday, February 14th, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and at least nine others were killed when a massive bomb ripped through Beirut's fashionable seafront boulevard. According to Newsday.com, “Hariri's killing has already emboldened the Lebanese opposition, which is using renewed international attention on Lebanon to advance its demand for a pullout of the 15,000 Syrian troops here and an end to Damascus' political domination. The opposition lost its most important figure in Hariri, a billionaire and construction tycoon who led Lebanon for 10 years and oversaw the rebuilding of Beirut. But the opposition also gained new momentum and a sense of unity.”

This tragic event has, as Newsday indicated, put the spotlight on Syria’s involvement in the Lebanese Republic. Now without delving into many years of Arab history and how it was mucked up by the Allies re-drawing artificial state boundaries, there is a bit of history here that is relevant to what is going on right now. To start with, Arabs have apparently always questioned the legitimacy of Lebanon being a sovereign nation in the face of their belief that it is actually a part of Syria (which was once a part of Ottoman).

This is the short, short history of Syrian-Lebanese/Middle East relations:

1946: French troops leave Lebanon.
1948: Influx of Palestinians and the establishment of Israel.
1958: Pro Arab Druze and Sunni forces try to overthrow government so as to unite with Egypt and Syria. Conflict ends after US intervention.
1964: PLO founded.
1969: Cairo Agreement signed.
1975: War start between the Lebanese Front and the Palestinians. Left wing parties join in on the side of the Palestinians.
1976: Syria fearing Israeli intervention enters Lebanon to stop the fighting with the blessing of the Arab League.
1977: The Syrians become an occupying force.
1978: The Lebanese front engages the Syrians in an effort to expel them. Israel invades southern Lebanon to combat the PLO.
1982: June 6: Israel invades Lebanon for the second time, and this time centred to both southern Lebanon, and Beirut.
August 21: US mediation convince PLO that they have to leave Lebanon, multinational peace keeping force arrives..
August 23: Bashir Gemayel is elected president..
September 14: Bashir Gemayel assassinated.
September 21: Amin Gemayel, Bashir's brother, is elected new president.
1983: May 17 Agreement signed with Israel, Syria and its allies attack the Lebanese government forces. Lebanese Forces defeated in the Shouf.
1984: Multinational forces leave Lebanon.
1985: Heavy fighting in southern Lebanon starts after withdrawal of Israeli troops. Palestinian-Druze-Shiite coalition defeats Lebanese Forces in the south.
1988: Michel Aoun is appointed head of Lebanese government.
1989: Taif Agreement signed in Saudi Arabia and is rejected by Michel Aoun. Elias Hrawi is elected new president.
1990: After an all out Syrian assault, Aoun orders Lebanese Army to surrender. Aoun is exiled to France.
1992: Elections for the new National Assembly boycotted by the majority of the population, but results are upheld.
1996: Israeli attacks Hizballah in southern Lebanon and Beirut. shelling of Qana 100 civilians killed in UN shelter, 150 were wounded. (Credit cedarland.org)

According to Freelebanon.org, “Since September 17, 1982, Syria has been in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 520, demanding that "all non-Lebanese forces" leave Lebanon. Syria has occupied Lebanon since 1976, when it initially intervened in the Lebanese civil war. Syria has killed hundreds of Lebanese leaders since the early 1980s and then it systematically absorbed Lebanon into itself.

Syria, driven by the idea that Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine (also known as Southern Syria), are part of Greater Syria, has worked for almost three decades, unhindered, to pacify Lebanon, and make it vanish as an independent state. Daniel Pipes in "Greater Syria: The History of an Ambition," has written extensively about the Greater Syria ideology that drove Bashar Al-Assad's father and continues to motivate the new Syrian president.”

Now that Hariri has been assassinated, Kofi Annan is once again calling on Syria to honor UN resolution 1559. “UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Tuesday called on Syria to start withdrawing its troops from Lebanon by April, when he is due to report to the Security Council on the implementation of a UN resolution (1559) urging all foreign troops to leave Lebanon… The resolution, adopted last September, calls for the withdrawal of all remaining foreign forces from Lebanon, disbanding all militias and extending government control over the whole country.

Although the resolution does not specifically mention Syria, Annan said in an initial report in October that aside from a UN peacekeeping force, the only significant foreign forces in Lebanon were Syrian. The report said Syria indicated that it has some 14,000 troops still inside Lebanon.” (Credit xinhuanet.com)

You know you’re in trouble when Kofi Annan starts demanding countries other than the US and Israel actually follow through on UN resolutions.

The rhetoric from both sides is already starting to ramp up. Immediately when the story broke President Bush recalled Ambassador Margaret Scobey for "consultations" in the wake of Hariri's assassination. She may end up going back but right now that’s not a sign that the US is going to spend time considering “diplomatic” solutions to the Syrian problem.

White House press secretary Scott McClellan said, "The United States will consult with other governments in the region and on the Security Council today about measures that can be taken to punish those responsible for this terrorist attack, to end the use of violence and intimidation against the Lebanese people and to restore Lebanon's independence, sovereignty and democracy by freeing it from foreign occupation.”

That was followed by a statement from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who said, “We would hope that the Syrian government would take the opportunity of this signal from the United States to review where we are in the relationship and to try to put our relations on a better path.”

Anybody that can understand Bush-speak knows that’s a war cry.

The Syrians are in on the act as well. They of course are pleading innocence and instead are blaming the whole affair on the Israeli Mossad. “All the evidence indicates that the Israeli intelligence service Mossad killed Hariri, since it had previously plotted to assassinate important Lebanese politicians.

The Mossad is trying to help the Zionist army claw its way back into Lebanon, since history has shown that the stability of Lebanon is not to the advantage of Israel.” (Credit Mehrnews.com)

The writing is on the wall and pieces are being moved into position. Whether it is through a large-scale land invasion or through covert operations, the next piece we will take is Syria, mark my words.