Here's the story and what I think it means so far:
North Korea successfully tested a nuclear bomb underground about 240 miles north east of their capital.
NK is a client state of China and in reality, China is their sole means of support. So long has China sends oil to Pyongyang, they can continue to trade in arms, drugs and terrorism to their hearts content. If China should decide to throw Kim Jung Il over the side and stop sending him precious energy then the entire house of cards his regime is built on falls apart. My feeling, and I certainly hope I'm wrong about this, is that they will condemn (as they've already done) this act in public while supporting it in private. From everything I've read on Sino-Korean relations, much like Hezbollah to Iran/Syria, N. Korea does China's dirty work.
There are other details of note. N Korea is a training ground in the vein of pre-9/11 Afghanistan, for anti-Western terrorism. N Korea and Iran are allies, even sharing in military technology. NK's Taep’o-dong missile appears to be the model for Iran's Shahab missile. It is widely believed that if either NK or Iran had the bomb first, they'd be giving it to their respective ally with haste. You can bet that if something isn't done in the immediate future, NK will have a functional atomic bomb and then in short order so will our good friends in Tehran.
N Korea has already made threats to attack both Japan and S Korea. There currently exists a mutual protection pact between US and Japan, and the US and S Korea. A few months ago N Korea tested several ballistic missiles, some of which can hit Japan rather easily. N Korea can also negate the integrity of the demilitarized zone and march right on into S Korea. Also N Korea's artillery can decimate Seoul in well before the US could offer a counter-strike. In theory, while we would probably completely destroy N Korea, there wouldn't be much left of S Korea either should total war break out.
The US and Japan are allegedly demanding stricter sanctions on Pyongyang via the United Nations. Once again, unless China steps up and ceases to support this rogue state, UN sanctions on an already impoverished state fully entrenched in arms dealing and drug running won't matter much in the grand scheme of things.
This is ugly folks. There are no good options. Many of them will ostensibly open up World War III (or IV depending on your view of history). Again, the linchpin here is China. Right now they have already been next to useless in dealing with both Iran and N Korea and there is no evidence to support that anyone in Beijing is about to change their minds anytime soon.
Word has it that we are preparing for a military strike in both Iran and N Korea within the next month. In theory, this should be just long enough for both diplomacy and the threat of sanctions to fail. Much like in Iraq, the UN will prove to be toothless and the world will most likely see its most devasting war to date.
Obviously I hope I'm wrong about this and China does the right thing, but I highly doubt it. I also hope there is a third option out there that isn't totally dependent on Beijing that doesn't involve war either, but again I doubt it.
I will have more on this story as it develops.
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