All Bark, No Bite

This is sort of a companion piece from Monday's post about restarting an arms race. First, some people seem to believe I was being sarcastic in my opinion that an arms race is actually the best course of action in securing world peace. I'm not being sarcastic, I actually think that if everyone has a missile pointed at everyone else there will be less of a chance someone will actually use it. Who knows, maybe, just maybe, people will be less likely to war against each other in general all around. Now that might be wishful thinking but to date, I haven't seen containment or preemption bare the fruit of peace we've been promised. Sometimes you have to think out of the box.

However, at this juncture I doubt the US will even bother attempting to invade Iran. I know Scott Ritter thinks the war has already started but I mean a real war. A war with Geraldo Rivera running around drawing maps in the sand, that kind of war. Don't get me wrong, I think if this administration believes they have a shot they'll take it but I just don't think that shot is going to happen. The reason I believe we're not going into Iran can be summed up in two words: Russia and energy.

First I'll deal with the latter. The US desperately needs oil and natural gas. We buy from Saudi Arabia because it can pull more oil out of the ground for cheaper than any other country. That dynamic is rapidly changing as cooperation between the US and Russia is growing at a very high rate.

From Global Politician: In September 2003 the energy ministries of Russia and the USA signed a Protocol for the prevention and elimination of consequences from oil spills. Within that Protocol the US experience, concerning state guarantees for the security of energy storage facilities and pipelines can be utilized by Russia, which is highly topical by the way if we bear in mind the speedy outdating and depreciation of Russian transport infrastructure.

Earlier that year (in March 2003) the two countries signed an agreement to reduce the threat from weapons of mass destruction. This agreement envisaged the stopping of plutonium production by the shutdown of three Russian reactors under U.S.-Russia Elimination of Weapons-Grade Plutonium Production Program. In 2004 started the implementation of the agreement between the two governments, concerning the return to Russia (for processing and storage) of the already used fuel from highly enriched uranium. In result of this agreement, 17 countries received American financial and technical aid for the transfer to Russia of Russian-made used nuclear fuel from their nuclear power plants as well as for the implementation of non-enriched uranium in the power plants, as it would be less dangerous in the hands of terrorists.

On corporate levels worth mentioning the credit agreement between Lukoil and the US Overseas Private Investment Corportation, under which the private investment fund HBK Fund loaned 225 million USD for a twelve-year period to the ad-hoc Visotsk - Lukoil II for the construction of a port terminal in the Finnish bay. In its turn, the Russian consortium Stroitransgaz signed an agreement for personnel exchange and cooperation in the construction of pipelines on US territory with the US corportation Key Energy Services. Another joint project of the same Russian company with foundation Systems envisages the construction of a gas pipeline from Eastern Siberia to South Korea for 400 - 500 million dollars.

Meanwhile, in 2000 Lukoil bought out for 71 million USD the American company Getty Petroleum Marketing, which controls a network of 1 300 petrol stations and oil bases in the Eastern states of the USA. Expanding its US business, in 2004 Lukoil bought about 800 other petrol stations in New Jersey and Pennsylvania from Conoco Phillips for 375 million dollars. Thus, the Russian giant controls 8% of the petroleum product retail market in the East Coast of the USA. Apart from that, Lukoil leased a large sea terminal near New York, where it will import petroleum products from Visotsk and the Bulgarian port of Burgas, where, as is widely known, are located the largest processing facilities of Lukoil. In its turn, Conoco Phillips bought 7.6% of the state-owned shares in Lukoil for 1.9 billion dollars. The importance of this deal can hardly be re-evaluated because it provides Lukoil with the necessary legal argument to step back in Iraq and launch deliveries of crude oil from the oil fields, developed by the Russians even in Saddam times, to the oil processing facilities of Conoco Phillips in the Eastern USA.

We are not going to cross the Russians thus scuttling deals like the ones mentioned above. The cost factor for invading Iran and instigating a confrontation with Russia would far outweigh any possible gains we may make even if we successfully took Tehran like we did Baghdad.

On that point, the Bush administration doesn't seem to want to actually fight wars the way they're supposed to be fought anymore. We start rebuilding the infrastructure while the enemy is still armed and about and our footing isn't totally secure, as is the case in Iraq. That's obviously a recipe for protracted guerilla struggle, as we're currently facing. As the people of this country have no stomach for either a real war or a long war, again, there is no up side for us to preemptively or reactively invade Iran.

This brings me to my second point about Russia's involvement in this mess. According to Iranmania:
ranian Ambassador to Russia Gholam Reza Ansari said that Tehran, Moscow relations are improving in all areas, IRNA reported.

Speaking to Ria Novosti News Agency, Ansari said following the trip by former president Mohammad Khatami to Moscow several years ago a new chapter began in bilateral relations in all areas.

He also referred to the two nations' cooperation in nuclear energy. "After the completion of Bushehr nuclear powerplant building more powerplants is on the two states' agenda."

Ansari said that the building Bushehr is the most important index of economic cooperation between the two sides in the recent years.

He also expressed hope that with the timely dispatch of fuel by Russia and completion of the powerplant, operations will start on schedule.

"We have ensured Russia that our nuclear activities are peaceful and expect Moscow to convey this policy to other nations." He alluded to the energy sector as an important area of cooperation between the two countries. Soon Iran electricity grid will be connected to Russia and Armenia.

Ansari said the two nations' cooperation in industry and advanced technologies are also extensive and referred to last year's agreement to build 'Zohreh' satellite.

He also expressed hope that the agreements would be implemented in the near future.

Iran is interested in active participation in the joint Caspian Sea security forces. Tehran and Moscow have common views on political, economic and cultural areas and oppose foreign intervention in the region, he added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last September that his country is committed to complete Bushehr nuclear power station on time (scheduled in 2006).

Iran can comfortably stand behing Russia now knowing that the US can't and probably won't do anything more than complain and threathen them. Harsh language is about as bad as the US can do so long as Tehran and Moscow have such deep connections to one another.

On the other hand, and this takes us back to Mondays column, Russia won't let the mullahs follow through on their much ballyhooed threat to destroy Israel and the US. There are no worries there either directly or indirectly. The powerful of Iran now have as much to lose if Hezbollah explodes a nuke in Jerusalem as the Israeli's do. Economics is the single most powerful force in the world, don't let anybody tell you otherwise.