Fatherland or Death!

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"We already lived one experience," Olimpia Hung, a Venezuelan merchant said, referring to Mr. Chavez's brief ouster in an abortive 2002 coup. "It must not happen again. Fatherland or death!"

So which is it exactly, are we going to war with Iran, North Korea, Syria, China or Venezuela next? Honestly, between John Bolton confirmation and the myriad amounts of alarmist stories coming from all directions regarding the next war in time for the mid-term elections, I'm not entirely sure what it is we think we're doing.

A story out of the Globe and Mail states that: "As the citizen militias train, Venezuela is stocking up on weapons -- 100,000 AK-47s from Russia, and military ships and planes from Brazil and Spain. Mr. Chavez has vowed to organize a military reserve of more than 1.5 million people -- 6 per cent of his country's population.

Venezuelan leaders say the reserve and the arms purchases are purely defensive, but the militaristic tone coming out of Caracas is sparking concern in the United States and neighbouring Colombia.

"What in the world [is the threat] that Venezuela sees that makes them want to have all those weapons?" U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld asked last week.

The answer, according to Mr. Chavez, is an invasion by the United States, Venezuela's largest trading partner and the destination for most of its petroleum exports.

Most analysts dismiss the idea as preposterous, but Mr. Chavez, a former army paratrooper, has made the prospect a frequent theme of his speeches. The Americans "will bite the dust of defeat," he predicted in a February speech, saying he is sure the White House plans to kill him."

Probably, but not quite yet. It appears, as I mentioned above, the purpose behind nominating John Bolton to the United Nations is to begin laying the foundation for a war against Iran. Former UN Chief Weapons inspector in Iraq Scott Ritter states that, "John Bolton, who, as the former US undersecretary of state for arms control and international security for the Bush administration, is responsible for drafting the current US policy towards Iran.

In February 2004, Bolton threw down the gauntlet by stating that Iran had a 'secret nuclear weapons programme' that was unknown to the IAEA. 'There is no doubt that Iran has a secret nuclear weapons production programme', Bolton said, without providing any source to back up his assertions.

This is the same John Bolton who had in the past accused Cuba of having an offensive biological weapons programme, a claim even Bush administration hardliners had to distance themselves from.

John Bolton is the Bush official who declared the European Union's engagement with Iran 'doomed to fail'. He is the Bush administration official who led the charge to remove Muhammad al-Baradai from the IAEA.

And he is the one who, in drafting the US strategy to get the UN Security Council to impose economic sanctions against Iran, asked the Pentagon to be prepared to launch 'robust' military attacks against Iran should the UN fail to agree on sanctions."

So we see where this whole business is headed. With everything I'm reading about Mr. Bolton it certainly points to a full-scale invasion of Iran on the horizon. Some will say it's to secure peace by eliminating a state sponsor of terror and possible proliferator of nuclear arms while others will say this is only about oil and natural gas. I say it's probably a little from column A and a little from column B.

I've written in this space before that a war against Iran will most likely provoke a war with China via Taiwan and you almost assuredly can count on the Russians and the North Koreans to contribute as well. But at this time it doesn't look like we have the stamina or the resources to begin an attack on both Venezuela and Iran at the same time. Not to mention that we still have forces attempting to secure Iraq, which is still being littered with car bombs and high profile assassination attempts. Needless to say we're a bit busy.

Ms. Hung and the whole lot of Venezuelan citizens can train in a militia all they want, unless they start marching in to Colombia and barring any unforseen calamity, there will not be war in Venezuela anytime soon.