GW's Brand New Bag: Redux

A month or so before the election, Newsmax.com ran an article about all of the cabinet level folks who would most likely be retiring after GW was re-elected. With the election safely (and mercifully) over and talk of John Ashcofts imminent retirement, I thought I'd start this blog with my article on what I thought the future would hold for the likes of Condeleeza Rice, Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld and company:

09.10.04: GW’s Brand New Bag – Bush may have the election won but “the team” may not be coming along for a second ride.

This election cycle is over. Post-Gazette.com reports, “A Newsweek survey released yesterday showed a 13-point bounce for Bush after last week's Republican convention, compared to an uptick of only 2 percent for Kerry after the Democratic convention in late July. For the first time since January, the president's approval rating rose above 50 percent”. Electoral-vote.com, which tends to lean left and has links to liberal minded articles and other items of concern has the electoral count at Bush 270, Kerry 252. In addition, according to this poll Bush has won (weak or otherwise) Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all key battleground states. Unless GW completely blows the debates (which he won’t) or strangles a small black child on national television, I say again, this election is over.

When you are done crying, come back.

Now then, a GW second term at first glance means second verse same as the first with a return of all your favorite cabinet members: Secretary of Defense, Donald “McNamara” Rumsfeld; Secretary of State, Colin “Screwed by the French” Powell; National Security Advisor, Condeleeza “Hung out to Dry” Rice; Attorney General, John “Patriot Act” Ashcroft; and lastly Homeland Security Secretary, Tom “Pretty Colors” Ridge.

However, USA Today reports, “Key Bush advisers such as national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Attorney General John Ashcroft will be among those who exit". Those who have already run for the hills like Bruce Dickinson (Iron Maiden) are Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, CIA Director George Tenet, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christie Whitman.

GW may be winning in November but it looks like only he and that elusive Dick Cheney will be the only ones still around the White House Christmas tree come December.

In the immortal words of Chris Rock, “How did we get here?” First off, many of GW’s cabinet were chosen initially to round out the war hawks like Cheney and Rumsfeld. Paul O’Neil states in his book the Price of Loyalty by Ron Suskind, “Policy decisions are determined not by careful weighing of an issue's complexities; rather, they're dictated by a cabal of ideologues and political advisors operating outside the view of top cabinet officials. The President is not a fully engaged administrator but an enigma who is, at best, guarded and poker-faced but at worst, uncurious, unintelligent, and a puppet of larger forces.” O’Neil goes on to say that folks like himself, Whitman and Powell were chosen for their faces and not because GW and Co actually wanted their expertise.

In both of Bob Woodward’s books (Bush at War and Plan of Attack) it is plain to see that Colin Powell is regarded as the redheaded stepchild of the national security team. In both books he pleads for sanity in the face of Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and sometimes Bush wanting to run headlong into war with Iraq. It was Powell who stressed the importance of engaging the UN and by proxy the French. It was that same Powell who was thus undermined by the French (French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin), the UN Security Council and the pro-war Bush administration hawks (in roughly that order). At one time Powell was regarded as a serious presidential candidate and rival of GW. After the 2002 “run-up” to war, Powell has been irreparably damaged and will most likely retire from politics, as his wife won’t let him run for president anyway. Much like the aforementioned O’Neil and the much-ballyhooed Richard Clarke (former Terrorism Czar; Against All Enemies) Powell will mostly likely write a book detailing his time in the White House…and the White House will go about their business of smearing him into oblivion.

While it is unknown right now what Rumsfeld, Ashcroft and Ridge will do, Condoleezza Rice is planning on making a run for office in the state of California. Newsmax.com reports, Rice's interest in running for high office. She has already put out feelers for a run for California's governorship and has been touted as a presidential candidate. "Some friends think she'll return to California and pursue a political career there," USA Today said, confirming the NewsMax report. The paper added, "Others think she would accept a Cabinet post, possibly Defense or State."

She’s got some case if she thinks she can unseat Governor Schwarzenegger. This man is enjoying huge approval ratings and will most likely win as an incumbent should he choose to run again. In addition, while Schwarzenegger has been able to reach across party lines and work with his largely democrat legislature, those people will be gunning for him like it’s Running Man 2: Electric Boogaloo come next gubernatorial race.

Rice has a much better shot grooming herself towards a run for the presidency. She won’t win the nomination but she’d be a keen pick to win with Giuliani as Vice President against a strong Hillary Clinton ticket.

With the Iraq war over and the mission of this particular administration completed, it’s tough to say whom GW will pick to fill the empty slots in his cabinet. As a triumphant incumbent it doesn’t much matter how many moderates he picks, he’s got nobody to impress, as he cannot run again. Maybe after that stellar performance he’ll toss McCain a bone and put him in Powell’s slot. In any case, the next four years of a Bush presidency promise to be interesting indeed.