Oil falls as U.S. recovers

This by no means let's the oil companies or this administration off the hook for the terrible way they've handled energy consumption and production in this country but it's a small step in the right direction. As somebody who spends many hours driving for a living, I for one am a little thankful.

Here's the story:

il prices fell 2.4 percent on Tuesday as the U.S. energy industry showed signs of recovery in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and industrialized countries prepared to tap emergency supplies to avert a crunch.

U.S. crude settled down $1.61 to $65.96 a barrel -- well below last week's peak $70.85 -- while London Brent was off 18 cents at $64.67.

Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast early last week, shutting down nearly all U.S. offshore crude oil production and paralyzing more than 10 percent of refining capacity in the world's biggest fuel consumer.

But the industry's desperate push to recover has begun to pay dividends, as nearly half of the refineries fully or partially closed by the storm returned to service and offshore operators made strides to restore production.

"We are starting to see signs of recovery after Hurricane Katrina ... It looks like the worst is over," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading.

Dealers said additional supply from the world's emergency stockpiles would also keep prices under pressure.

The United States began an auction on Tuesday for crude from national reserves for refiners struggling for feedstock after Katrina shut down most Gulf of Mexico production and closed major pipelines.

This comes as part of the International Energy Agency's total release of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) over the next 30 days, the first time the IEA has tapped its members' 1.5 billion barrel government stocks since 1991.

It is still not clear how much of the IEA release will comprise oil products such as gasoline, coming as U.S. retail price increases worry motorists and businesses.

"The release of strategic reserves contains a very large component of unneeded crude oil, and does little to directly impact on the actual supply gap of U.S. oil products," said a report by Barclays Capital.

"We are now putting the expected cumulative loss of U.S. gasoline output at about 60 million barrels."

Continued

The Thinking Toolbox by Nathaniel and Hans Bluedorn

I wasn’t sure what to expect when opted to read and review, “The Thinking Toolbox: 35 lessons that will build your Reasoning Skills,” by Nathaniel and Hans Bluedorn. I had taken and enjoyed Logic 101 when I was in college so I thought reading a book that was designed to improve my “reasoning skills,” would be an interesting venture. Even though the book is really intended for children ages 13 and over, I still found it entertaining, even if a bit rudimentary.

The book is broken up into 35 lessons that feature and introduction, some examples and then some activities relative to the preceding lesson. There is also an entire section dedicated to further puzzles and games dedicated to improving ones reasoning skills. Appropriate pictures that further illustrate the main point of each lesson pleasantly accompany each lesson. Ostensibly this is a fun and interesting children’s textbook dedicated to the art of clear and thoughtful analysis.

Some of the lessons include but are on limited to (1) When it is dumb to argue, (2) Using the scientific method, (3) Five rules of brainstorming, (4) Who has a reason to lie? (5) How to analyze opposing viewpoints, (6) How to analyze evidence and sources, (7) How to list reasons why you believe something, and many other as well.

One of the features of the guide is that it presents a “Christian view of logic.” I was somewhat skeptical of this at first because I wasn’t sure what the authors definition of a “Christian view of logic,” exactly was and how that would affect the narrative of book. As it turns out, if the back cover didn’t explicitly alert the reader to this idea, it wouldn’t occur to you at all that you were being exposed to said, “Christian view of logic.” The authors make it patently clear how one should conduct themselves within the confines of civil discourse and debate. The themes of the lessons are patience, an emphasis on good communication and tolerance of ulterior points of view. These are consistent with the teachings of Jesus Christ and just make good common sense.

I do not have children at this time but I do work with disadvantaged and abused children on a daily basis as a family therapist. I believed strongly enough in the books overall message that I decided to bring to a session with a family that has found strength and solidarity in the Christian church. The family, who tend to be open to new ideas and willing to put forth the effort to make positive changes in their family dynamic, were very interested in the book and accepted it as a gift from me. It ended up being the impetus to a wonderful session that centered on how the husband and wife could better improve their communication and find a better sense of understanding of each other. In this sense, it served a very practical purpose. I would submit that, “The Thinking Toolbox,” could be used in a classroom or among family members as a way of exercising better communication skills and also generating positive discussion, as had happened during my session.

The children of the home found it especially appealing as well. While I as an educated adult found many of the lessons to be common sense, the children who took a gander at the book while in session began to acquire and framework for the art of discourse and communication that had previously escaped them. On of the children were simply mesmerized by the lessons and excitedly quoted from the book as he found new words to label thoughts that often went garbled in previous family or school discussions.

Though this guide came from a Christian publishing house, there’s nothing particularly or overtly religious about it. It is as I explained above, simply a guide to building better reasoning skills based on the premise of tolerance and clarity. I believe those themes are universal enough to warrant readership by the religious and secular alike.

If you have children or work with them and they are savvy and patient enough for you to do interesting activities with, I would highly recommend, “The Thinking Toolbox: Thirty-Five Lessons That Will Build Your Reasoning Skills,” by Nathaniel and Hans Bluedorn.

This Post is also available at The Blogger News Network

India, Iran brighten smile despite American frown

While China seeks to become the world's newest superpower, Iran has made its goal to be the dominant and guiding power of the Middle Eastern/Central Asian region. Iran is seeking nuclear missiles for the same reason North Korea won't give up theirs; the lesson the world has taught the Third World is that if you got bombs, the US will talk to you, if you don't, you'll become Iraq circa 1991 - Present.

Having said that, the below article is just one example of how centers of power are shifting in the world and in some ways, the US is powerless to stop it. There are countries that plainly do not see Iran as a threat to them and therefore are willing to pen deals with them, such as India. It's no wonder that there's another article floating around today saying that Iran is shrugging off the threat of UN sanctions. I would too if were the Iranians. Any country that chooses not to do business with Tehran only makes room for those that have no issue with dictatorial regimes. Those regimes far outnumber the liberal democracies and that's a crying shame in itself.

I don't think this current administration really understands just how much the world has changed and they seem completely unprepared to deal in the new global reality. That's pretty sad, all things considered.

Here's the article:

The visit by External Affairs Minister K Natwar Singh to Iran has sent a clear message to the world about New Delhi's resolve to deepen its strategic and cultural ties with Tehran despite the American frown.

"I am happy with the visit. We are committed to continuing and expanding relationship with Iran, which is an important country for us," Natwar Singh said while returning from Shiraz, the ancient Persian city he visited on Sunday, marking the end of a three-day visit to Iran.

Natwar Singh's visit was astutely timed -- it was the first high-level trip to Tehran by a minister from a non-Muslim country ever since the new regime of hardliners headed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took charge in Iran.

The timing was also significant in as much as the visit took place at a time when Iran is increasingly becoming a pariah state in the eyes of the West, which is accusing Tehran of enriching uranium to produce nuclear weapons.

It may be a coincidence but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report asking Iran to be more transparent was released on Saturday when Natwar Singh was holding discussions with Ahmadinejad, the India-educated Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani.

Later in the day, India repeated its support for Iran's peaceful nuclear energy programme within the framework of its international obligations and commitments.

Reassertion of support for its nuclear programme by New Delhi clearly means a lot to Tehran, which has been trying to move beyond its current EU negotiators -- Britain, France and Germany -- to include other countries in its future nuclear negotiations.

Iranian diplomats have broadly hinted at involving the UN in these negotiations, but New Delhi is yet to confirm these overtures.

"The visit to Iran was timely and showed our commitment to continuing with a relationship that is critically important for our energy needs and national security," Hamid Ansari, a former ambassador to Iran, said.

Added Pushpesh Pant, a professor of diplomacy at the Jawaharlal Nehru University here: "By this important and timely visit, India has sent a message to the world that we have an independent foreign policy and that we can stand up to American pressure on crucial areas of national interest."

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On Friendship

Our friend Mark has flown the coup for the weekend, so this guest post has been paid for by John Brodigan for a Better America. I figured I'd take a break from politics with something I wrote back in July. And no, the food fight never broke out...

"I want to be a comfort to my friends in tragedy. And I want to be able to celebrate with them in triumph. And for all the times in between, I just want to be able to look them in the eye." - Josh Lyman, The West Wing

I've been talking to this cat I used to run with back in the day. We had a falling out over whatever whatever, and hadn't spoken for a couple of years. I'm not sure if I was angry until recently or stopped being angry and never really thought aboot it, but the bottom line is that we we're cool now. We're both man enough to admit where mistakes were made, and are just making up for lost time. I made a crack about his people only moving to Miami when they retire, he gave me shit for ordering a salad...all was right in the world.

Anyways, we were talking recently and he told me about this girl he had met. He had mentioned her aboot a month ago as having "the one potential." The next time we spoke (two days ago), she was researching wedding halls. I barely had time to finish choking on my pie before he went on the defensive. He's marrying a girl he only met a month ago, so I'm sure you can imagine most people's reactions, and imagine what he was getting defensive about. I just asked him the same yes or no question I ask all my friends:

"Are you happy?"
"Yes."
"That's all you ever need to explain to me."

If there's one thing I've learned in my *sigh* thirty years on this planet (and something I wish I had learned sooner), it's that people are going to do what they're going to do. Nine out of ten friends will always tell you how you're making a mistake and how what you're doing is wrong. We've all at some point been lectured by friends on how were supposed to think and live our lives. It sucks. The last thing you want to hear when you're excited about something, or are going through personal problems, is criticism and lectures from people who you consider friends. Sometimes you question if they care about you more than they care that you're listening to them.

And if we're being honest, I'm just as guilty as anyone else. That's just an unfortunate side effect of human nature. But I've come to realize the best I could do is to be that one friend who is there to simply have their back and look them in the eye. Listening over lectures. Comedy instead of criticism. If my opinion is asked for, I'll give it honestly, and only give it once. Otherwise, right or wrong, people need to be free to live their own life. All I can do is let them.

If my friends are right, I'll be the first there to celebrate. If they're wrong, I'm the first there to help them back up. No "I told you so." No questions asked. No explanations needed.

I don't know where I'm going with this (which I seem to say a lot). I guess at the end of the day I'm just hoping a food fight doesn't break out at the Outback.

Though throwing pies at each other has been a great running gag through the years...

Oil price bubble about to burst: Steve Forbes

And now for a special presentation, my Pappy, Chistopher Radulich responds to Steve Forbes:


My first reaction was to ask what he was smoking when he made that prediction. After careful consideration I still think this is a valid question. Many of the factors that have caused the price of oil to go up will still be in effect next year. The alternative is a world wide recession. Both China and India will still be growing next year and the US economy is also supposed to continue growing. Europe and the rest of the Asian nations are still trying to grow their economy. If the Japanese population ever decides to go into debt and start buying, the Japanese economy will also take off. Meanwhile oil supplies are remaining the same or declining. There is no reason to assume that the situation in Iraq will be any better, which makes their oil at constant risk. oil may go down to $50 a barrel after the mess from the hurricane is corrected but there is only one thing that will bring down the price of oil to what Mr. Forbes says, WORLD WIDE DEPRESSION. Given that option, I'll take oil at $50 to $60 dollars a barrel.

Thanks Pappy, and now Mr. Forbes:

Oil prices are set to crash from this week’s record highs as a speculative market bubble bursts with an impact that could make the IT meltdown of 2000 “look like a picnic”, publisher Steve Forbes said on Tuesday.

Forbes said oil prices, which peaked at more than $70 a barrel on Monday as hurricane Katrina headed for the US Gulf Coast, and which are currently putting a dampner on the US economy, would fall to $30-35 a barrel within a year.

“I’ll make a bold prediction... In 12 months, you’re going to see oil down to $35-40 a barrel,” the publisher of Forbes magazine told reporters.

“It’s a huge bubble, I don’t know what’s going to pop it but eventually it will pop — you cannot go against supply and demand, you cannot go against the fundamentals forever,” Forbes added.

The billionaire magazine publisher’s comments came as the price of crude eased following US government comments that it could release some stock from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

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U.S. Rep. Curt Weldon speaks out on Iraq war

If you don't know who Curt Weldon is, he's the congressman that published a book full of allegedly ignored intelligence regarding Iran's role in the War on Terror called, "Countdown to Terror." Some have dismissed this book as a bunch of hooey and others have regarded it as the most important book published with regards to our proxy war with Iran. According to Weldon via his anonymous source that provides the backbone of the book, it was Iran that supported the Shiite backlash led by Muqtadr Al Sadr in Iraq and to this day Iran is still playing a part in the continued insurgency.

Here's what Weldon is saying today about our pal, Don Rumsfeld:

“We want Rumsfeld to be candid with the American people‚” said Weldon‚ who is Republican and the U.S. representative for Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District. “What he’s done in many cases is overstated the capability of the Iraqi military and that has caused the American people to think‚ ‘Well then we ought to be bringing the troops home.’”

Given a copy of Weldon’s remarks‚ a spokesman for the Department of Defense said in a statement that officials and military commanders “have provided the media and public realistic assessments of the ongoing operations for more than two years.”

“We have continually stated that a change of force level will be tied to conditions‚ one of which is the ability of the Iraqi security forces to perform their mission‚” Defense Department spokesman Todd Vician said.

Weldon agreed that it would be premature to bring troops home.

“The Iraqi military is not adequately equipped to take over their own security and we’ve got to work more aggressively to help them be in a position to do that‚” he said.

Weldon’s comments come amid deepening public concern over the growing costs of war. An Associated Press poll conducted Aug. 22 to 24‚ found that 58 percent of the country disapproves of the Bush Administration’s handling of the war in Iraq. The poll found 37 percent approve of it with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

With Congress under growing pressure to show progress‚ Weldon compared the current situation to Vietnam – though not in the sense war opponents have portrayed it.

“An artificial date to bring the troops home is wrong because then what you’re doing is the same thing we did in Vietnam‚ you’re letting politicians back home for political reasons make decisions that are going to endanger the lives of our sons and daughters‚” he said.

Weldon accused intelligence agencies of being slow to heed his warnings about the growing influence of Iran in the Iraqi insurgency.

After more than a year of what he described as “a major battle with the CIA” over documents he believed show the rising role Iran is playing‚ Weldon said the situation had been reversed.

“Now all of a sudden we’re coming out with information that everyone’s understanding is that in fact Iran is a major reason why we’re having the instability in Iraq.”

In an Aug. 9 press conference‚ Rumsfeld said that “weapons‚ clearly‚ unambiguously from Iran have been found in Iraq.” In response to a follow-up question‚ Rumsfeld said that “it’s notably unhelpful for the Iranians to be allowing weapons of those types to cross the border.”


In May‚ Weldon traveled to Iraq as part of a bipartisan delegation that met with the president and the chairman of the constitution drafting committee.


At that time‚ top Iraqi leaders attributed the insurgency’s potency to Iranian influence‚ Weldon said.

Now that this country’s military leadership has acknowledged Iran’s role it’s almost too late‚ Weldon said.


“The seeds have already been laid‚ the social networks in Iraq have already been established‚ the mullahs who are sympathetic to the Iranian movement have been fed money by them‚” he said.


Weldon has argued that Iran is much closer to developing a nuclear weapon than previously recognized in his recent book “Countdown to Terror.” The book was published by Regnery‚ which bills itself as “the nation’s leading conservative publisher.”

Critics have dismissed Weldon’s charges as overly dependent on a source intelligence agencies had previously deemed untruthful.

Much of Gulf Coast Is Crippled; Death Toll Rises After Hurricane

OH Crap!

From the NY Times:

A day after New Orleans thought it had narrowly escaped the worst of Hurricane Katrina's wrath, water broke through two levees on Tuesday and virtually submerged and isolated the city, causing incalculable destruction and rendering it uninhabitable for weeks to come.

Waters engulfed much of New Orleans on Tuesday, and officials feared a steep death toll after breaches in the levees sent the muddy waters of Lake Pontchartrain pouring into the city.

With bridges washed out, highways converted into canals, and power and communications lines inoperable, government officials ordered everyone still remaining out of the city. Officials began planning for the evacuation of the Superdome, where about 10,000 refugees huddled in increasingly grim conditions as water and food were running out and rising water threatened the generators.

The situation was so dire that late in the day the Pentagon ordered five Navy ships and eight Navy maritime rescue teams to the Gulf Coast to bolster relief operations. It also planned to fly in Swift boat rescue teams from California.

As rising water and widespread devastation hobbled rescue and recovery efforts, the authorities could only guess at the death toll in New Orleans and across the Gulf Coast. In Mississippi alone, officials raised the official count of the dead to at least 100.

"It looks like Hiroshima is what it looks like," Gov. Haley Barbour said, describing parts of Harrison County, Miss.

Across the region, rescue workers were not even trying to gather up and count the dead, officials said, but pushed them aside for the time being as they tried to find the living.

As the sweep of the devastation became clear, President Bush cut short his monthlong summer vacation on Tuesday and returned to Washington, where he will meet on Wednesday with a task force established to coordinate the efforts of 14 federal agencies that will be involved in responding to the disaster.

The scope of the catastrophe caught New Orleans by surprise. A certain sense of relief that was felt on Monday afternoon, after the eye of the storm swept east of the city, proved cruelly illusory, as the authorities and residents woke up Tuesday to a more horrifying result than had been anticipated. Mayor Ray Nagin lamented that while the city had dodged the worst-case scenario on Monday. Tuesday was "the second-worst-case scenario."

It was not the water from the sky but the water that broke through the city's protective barriers that changed everything for the worse. New Orleans, with a population of nearly 500,000, is protected from the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain by levees. North of downtown, breaches in the levees sent the muddy waters of the lake pouring into the city.

Streets that were essentially dry in the hours immediately after the hurricane passed were several feet deep in water on Tuesday morning. Even downtown areas that lie on higher ground were flooded. The mayor said both city airports were underwater.

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Venezuelan President Offers Aid For Katrina Victims

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No sooner does Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez make an overture of alleged peace and help toward his fellow man do the pundits begin railing against the man. On the radio today I heard all sorts of things like how this is Chavez using the hurricane for political opportunism and how this is all a ploy to make the big bad US look bad and yadda yadda yadda. The talking heads added that we shouldn't do business, even in a crisis such as what's afflicted New Orleans, with a pro-Castro socialist like Hugo Chavez.

To this I say, have you met the Saudi Arabians yet?

Look, New Orleans is very quickly sinking off the map and any help, whether it's from Chavez, Castro or the Prince of Darkness himself, should be readily accepted no matter what the underlying reasons are. Hell, we should be happy that any country feels compelled to lend a hand at all.

I received some calls today and I also heard on various radio programs about how we shelled out tons of dough for the Tsunami victims of SE Asia and various other disasters, but the rest of the world would be less likely or incapable of returning the favor. Well folks, other than food and shelter for the displaced citizens of the Big Easy, we also need oil. I haven't heard a peep from the Saudi's or the Russians. I got nothing from our good friends to the South, Mexico. Why not accept the helping hand of Hugo Chavez? It wouldn't be the first time we slept with the enemy. Again, need I remind you doubters about our continued relations with the French, the aforementioned Saudi's and my personal favorite, the Red Chinese.

Let us not forget that we are eternally grateful to the Russians for forbidding their Eastern European satellite nations from accepting the Marshal Plan. Lord only knows what tempest would have been unleashed if we had been taken up on offer to rebuild the countries behind the Iron Curtain. Chavez would probably be delighted if we refuse his help. He'd get great publicity and it would cost him nothing.

Beyond the terrible aftermath of Katrina and its unforeseen repercussions, it's high time we began to reconcile with Venezuela anyway. The fact that Chavez is a pro-Castro socialist and a Latin American rabble-rousing nationalist just is simply not enough to try and dismiss him. This space has posted story after story about the business deals being conducted between Caracas, Moscow, Tehran and Beijing. Every regime we ignore we ultimately push into the waiting arms of those who seek to disarm the United States.

Chavez may be making a cynical gesture by offering aid, oil and eye surgery but so what? Call his bluff, that's what I say. Make him live up to those words and then let's reassess. At the end of the day, as long as we're still married to oil, I say let's not look a gift horse in the mouth, even a cynical one such as being offered by Hugo Chavez.

Here's the story:

Caracas, Venezuela (AHN) - Last week Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez was attacking the U.S. for comments from 700 Club President, Pat Robertson, about calling for an assassination of the leader; Tuesday Chavez is offering aid to the victims of Hurricane Katrina.

"We place at the disposition of the people of the United States in the event of shortages we have drinking water, food, we can provide fuel," Chavez tells Associated Press.

Chavez says fuel can be sent to the United States through a Citgo refinery that has not been affected by the hurricane. Citgo is owned by Venezuela's state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela. He also offers to send aid workers to the gulf coast.

Chavez made an offer last week for discount gasoline to poor Americans suffering from high oil prices and offered free eye surgery for Americans without access to health care.

Chavez is heavily criticized for his socialist/communist ties in Latin America and has had negative relations with Washington for years.

Greenspan: End of home boom inevitable

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This may be the most honest thing this man has uttered since becoming Federal Reserve Chairman 18 years ago (gosh, has it really been that long?). This is simple mathematics. It is no secret that the cost of living is skyrocketing (see the current oil debacle) while wages are decreasing. Everywhere you look more neighborhoods worth living in are being over-developed and gentrified so much that the average American simply cannot afford to live a moderate, middle-income life.

Many people my age (I'm 29) are either still living with their parents or are shacking up with their respective others out of sheer economics rather than actual desire. In order to pay for housing, transportation, food and clothing (without going insane on any of the above items) one has to have wages well over 35K or it becomes impossible to make ends meet. On the flip side of that, suppose you can scrape together a living that at least meets your basic needs, in order for the economy to grow and flourish, consumerism must expand exponentially. Simply put, we gots to buy stuff. It's Pet Rock-uber alles or bust!

Now when you take falling wages, shortages of jobs (no matter what Rush Limbaugh is telling you), and combine them with the rising cost of needs based resources such as housing, you can easily see where all of this going. The bubble is going to burst because reality cannot perpetrate a fraud forever. You cannot raise the cost of a needs based resource like housing so high that the average consumer cannot afford them. At some point the law of supply and demand must take effect and correct the marketplace.

This is what happened with the Internet bubble. People kept dumping oodles of cash into a market, which only served to inflate its worth. The problem was that adequate consumer spending did not back it. The demand was simply not there. At the peak of the Internet boom, the average consumer still thought Amazon was a B-grade schlock skin movie you might see on Cinemax at three in the morning. The average consumer still likes to actually go to the store and feel the item they were purchasing. Sure Internet sales have increased since then but the malls aren't exactly empty either. My point is that this market was inflated well beyond the consumer’s ability or willingness to support it.

That takes us back to housing. If we cannot afford to buy the house, we won't. When the market has too many unbought expensive (or relatively inexpensive for that matter) houses then the whole kitten caboodle will come crashing down. Not to mention that interest rates, as low as they are now, cannot stay this low forever. Markets fluctuate all the time. What comes up must go down. As long as this administration continues to push an agenda of corporate feudalism, there will never be enough consumers to support the rising housing markets.

One last item on this before I cite the article that spawned this rant. One of the other reasons that the Internet bubbled and then busted was that the much-ballyhooed Dot Com stocks were traded so fast and so furiously that they never developed any real value. It was all fake value dependant on the rate of trading. The same thing is happening in the housing market. People are buying houses and quickly turning them over for a fast profit. For the time being that's fine and dandy for those actively trading in the housing market but for the rest of us whom have our lives invested in the home we live in (like my fiancé), when the housing bubble does indeed burst, it will dramatically effect the value of the homes we live in now. After the inevitable bust, we will be shelling out ridiculous sums of money for relatively worthless property. Sure, those that got out early and already turned over their houses won't be affected but the rest of the country will most likely fall into at least a recession if not a depression altogether.

But don't just take my word for it, here's Cheaty McStealsurmoney, Mr. Alan Greenspan:

U.S. home prices could fall as the housing boom "inevitably" slows, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Saturday as he cast doubt on central banks' ability to sway such asset values.

Greenspan offered the warning about the U.S. housing market in concluding remarks to an annual Kansas City Fed symposium, his last as Fed chairman and one focused this year on a retrospective of his 18-year tenure.

In unusually explicit terms, the central bank chief gave his reading of challenges he sees facing his still-unknown successor and laid out his own views on issues such as inflation targeting, fiscal policy and economic imbalances.

"The housing boom will inevitably simmer down," Greenspan said in the prepared remarks. "As part of that process, house turnover will decline from currently historic levels, while home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease."

Greenspan said while he expects continuing debate over whether the Fed could and should use its power over interest rates to try to influence prices for assets such as stocks and homes, he did not think it was feasible to do so.

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Hit on New Orleans would likely cause gas prices to soar

First and foremost, prayers to the residents of New Orleans, greater Mississippi and Southern Alabama. May God spare you and your loved ones from this impending disaster.

A few weeks back I saw a movie on FX called "Oil Storm." It was shot in documentary style and the premise of it was that a hurricane hit NOLA, thrashing all of the Gulf offshore oil riggs. This starts the US on a course toward disaster because the price of oil skyrockets well out of the means of most average Americans. We then ink a deal with the Saudi's to increase oil imports, which causes a terrorist attack by Al Qaeda. We then send troops to secure Saudi oil fields and then they get attacked. Long story short, the US nearly goes to pieces, all because oil prices have become catastropically high. This of course was a fictional story based on the real possibility of a hurricane wrecking the Gulf oil digging facilities.

Truth is stranger than fiction. In the 4 times I've been to NOLA, I've heard each time that a good size hurricane (category 5) will most likely end the Big Easy. As if it were God's cruel joke, that day has come. I don't know if it's because of the inevitable cost in human lives or my own sentimental attachment to the city that has meant so much to my friends and fiance or if it's just the new contacts in my eyes but everytime I think about what Katrina will do to the city I love, I want to bawl my eyes out.

Don't get me wrong, my primary concern is the welfare of the residents that lie in the path of Katrina's destruction. But, to paraphrase Morgan Freeman from the movie, Deep Impact, "Tomorrow the waters will recede and we will rebuild." When this is over we as global citizens will have to come face to face with some very real and very dire circumstances. Because of zealous corporatism, lack of education and organization on the part of average Americans and plain old shortsighted greed, we in America are not prepared to deal with any significant change in our oil dependant economy. Prepare for the coming Oil Storm in the wake of Katrina.

Here's one story:

New Orleans stood dead in the path of Hurricane Katrina, but the entire nation will feel the brunt of the powerful storm if oil and gas operations in the Gulf get whacked.

Roughly 30 percent of the oil and gas consumed in the United States flows along pipelines or is hauled in on tankers and barges in the Gulf Coast.

A major hit would disrupt fuel shipments and send prices soaring even higher right before the Labor Day holiday, when more than 34 million Americans are projected to hit the road.

Gas prices already are up an average 83 cents a gallon this year. Analysts predict that fears of a Katrina shortage could drive crude oil prices, which traded at around $66 a barrel on Friday, to as high as $70 this week. Every additional $1 per barrel translates into more than 2 cents in the price of a gallon of gasoline.

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New Review: The Myth of Hitler's Pope

The following is a brief excerpt from a review posted on PopandPolitics.com:

When one mentions World War II, most people think of the Holocaust because of its monumental impact on the lives of millions of people. And if one were to play a word association game with the Holocaust, people would probably offer responses such as Jews, Nazis, Hitler, Auschwitz, and gas chambers.
What people might not offer as a response or even think about are the actions of the Catholic Church in respect to that tragic event. They certainly wouldn’t offer as a typical response the Holy See of that era, Pope Pius XII -- sometimes referred to as Hitler’s Pope.

Rabbi David G. Dalin has written an interesting book which concerns the life of Pope Pius XII and his hotly debated role in the attempted genocide of Europe’s Jews. “The Myth of Hitler’s Pope: How Pope Pius XII Rescued Jews from the Nazis” (Regnery Publishing), lays out two parallel arguments. The main thesis is that Pope Pius XII, born Eugenio Pacelli, condemned Nazism, Hitler, and anti-Semitism at large. This runs counter to many critics who charge that Pius condoned HItler and was a Nazi sympathizer. The second argument is broader and puts forth the reasoning that throughout history, the papacy has been a friend to the Jews when the world persecuted and murdered them.

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This is What We're Up Against Folks...

Iranian female paramilitary militias (Basiji) parade, in front of supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, unseen, in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2005. Khamenei said Friday Iran wants to enrich its own uranium extracted from its mine to produce fuel for its nuclear reactors and doesn't want to depend on foreign countries for nuclear fuel. (AP Photo/Mehdi Ghasemi, ISNA)

Good Morning Vietnam

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Normally I find one article to either write a brief commentary on or it inspires me to write a full article. In the case of news coming out of Vietnam today, there are a few articles of interests.

Vietnam looks to online future with e-government

"Accordingly, the government approved a request by the Ministry of Post and Telematics (MPT), the General Statistics Office (GSO) and the municipal People’s Committees of Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Danang to borrow $93.7 million from the World Bank to launch the e-government project. Of the total, Hanoi will have the largest loan package of $35 million, which it will use to push the project in 12 districts.

Three local state offices comprising the Departments of Information Technology, and Planning and Investment, and the People’s Committee Office, will use the loan package to promote information technology and design the municipal e-government process and basic exchange portals.

Hanoi authorities aim to offer at least three-to-five G2B (government-to-business) services including a geographic information system (GIS) and online services to at least 15 per cent of its residents, as well as encouraging 35 per cent of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to use ICT.

Under the plan, website and exchange portals will be updated at least once a week. Eighty per cent of the content will be updated automatically while around 30 per cent of administrative procedures will be addressed online..."

Who knew the city of the future would be Hanoi of all places? Considering what happened to that country 30-40 years ago, this is a remarkable story. It also lends credence to the idea that in this Information Age, the world not only becomes exceptionally smaller but also, many Third World countries are given ample opportunity to climb the development ladder as information technology spans the globe at a rate on par with light itself. I know it's not a sexy sexy story but I find this fascinating. I hope more countries will be moving to a Vietnam-style e-government. Hell I'd be happy if I could just re-order my Social Security over the Internet rather than actually have to go to the office in person.

Vietnam sets plans to boost private funding into social sectors

"Vietnam would work out comprehensive policies to boost investment from private sources into the social development of the country’s southern region, a government leader announced Aug. 23.
The most crucial way to increase private investment to develop education, healthcare, culture, and sports in South Vietnam was to establish a proper legal framework, said Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Khiem.

It would include a law governing the issue and further incentive policies to boost funding from private sources to the social sectors, he said.

Deputy PM Khiem said in the time to come, incentive policies needed to be more appropriate to ensure transparency and efficiency.

“Recently, investors have vied with each other to set up private clinics, while very few built hospitals, which are a higher priority for the south,” he said, “as our policies were insufficient.”

Mr. Khiem also said it was necessary to raise awareness to the issue, and ordered the ministries of health, culture, education, and sports to draw up plans to attract private investment into their sectors."

As a social worker, I'm all over this idea. Government, for lack of a better word, sucks! If it could be done with a minimal amount of graft, I would submit that all social institutions should be privatized. I have worked for state owned agencies and private agencies that bill Medicaid and I can say beyond a shadow of a doubt that the private agencies run much more efficiently than any government run program. This sounds great for Vietnam. I'm a huge cheerleader for any country, even a Communist one, to liberalize its economy and allow private investment. Like my uncle says, you want America to rule the world? Give everyone rock-roll and blue jeans.

and lastly:

Vietnam enters final stage of WTO talks next month

"The mid-September round of multilateral talks on Vietnam's admission to the World Trade Organization is very important and decisive for Vietnam, a deputy trade minister said Monday in Hanoi.
Vietnam is now entering the final stage of the process for joining the WTO, said Deputy Minister Luong Van Tu, who is Head of the Vietnamese Government delegation to the WTO negotiations.

The country went through ten multilateral rounds and concluded bilateral talks with 20 partners, Tu said at the opening session of a two-day seminar on the challenges facing Vietnam in its regional integration strategy.

Vietnam would not face any major obstacles in its talks with the remaining partners, Tu said, adding that the talks with the US and Australia were “going smoothly.”

The early conclusion of talks with the European Union, a major trading partner with 25 member countries, had a positive impact on Vietnam's negotiations process, he stressed.

Vietnam’s achievements in the WTO negotiations were creating momentum for Vietnam in other areas of international economic and commercial cooperation, especially the Southeast Asian free trade area.

Experts asserted that joining the WTO would give Vietnam an equal position in negotiating with other nations on trade liberalization in each region – a strongly developing trend in the world now..."

The last time I reported on this I got a bunch of hate mail regarding American POW's alleged to still be in Vietnam. Here's my thing, if they are there then a pre-requisite for joining the WTO or any trade organization that does business with the West, especially the US, should be the safe return of those soldiers with reparations. Obviously if that's not true and there are no longer any POW's in 'Nam, then let's all stop fixating on the bloody Cold War and get with the times. The world is rapidly changing due to technology that makes South East Asia our friendly neighbor to the East. There has to be investment overseas, there has to be developmental lending, there has to be job relocation to cheaper worker environments and there has to be an acceptance of new competitive markets. Vietnam is one of those places that must be accepted and it appears that the process has already begun. I applaud them for joining us in the 21st Century.

For those that don't like what I'm saying and are already preparing some labor-respective retort to counter my "Corporatist" philosophy, I suggest that before you do, read up on the Basic Income Guarantee.

In the meantime, go Vietnam!

Big News in China

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There are two stories of interest coming out of China this week, so far. The first one comes out of the New York Times and states that, “China's biggest state-owned oil company, the China National Petroleum Corporation, announced on Monday that it would pay $4.18 billion for a Canadian oil company with shares traded in New York and substantial reserves in Kazakhstan.

It is China's largest foreign acquisition yet, and more than twice what a Chinese computer company paid for I.B.M.'s personal computer business.

China National Petroleum outbid India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation in reaching a deal to acquire PetroKazakhstan, and it is not clear whether the Indian company will step up with a counterbid. Still, the process underlines the growing competition for oil resources by the world's two most populous countries, each of which is rapidly increasing oil imports.”

The other story, which has been percolating for a few days now concerns the first ever joint war games between Beijing and Moscow. This is from Chinadaily.com, “Their military drills, an exercise for the suppression of hypothetical ethnic conflict in an imaginary restive Central Asian country, signifies a new Russian-Chinese cooperation that could direct the shape of regional tension and disagreement in the future. The military drills mark a new friendly phase in a bilateral relationship that has often been characterized by open hostility.

The war games map out possible responses to an imaginary state engulfed in a wave of violence fuelled by ethnic and religious strife. Under great fanfare, they have repeated the urgency to ``fight against international terrorism, separatism and extremism’ in statements aimed at Taiwan and Chechnya.”

Normally I’d be bemoaning all of this and calling for our government to be vigilant against a clearly growing threat in the world. Not today my friends, not today. If this administration has taught me anything it’s that left to our devices we cannot be trusted to do the right things in the world for the right reasons. Like in most cases, we’re at our best when we’re threatened with our entire world collapsing around us.

If competition is what drives the marketplace then said marketplace is very soon going to go into overdrive. Let's face facts here, China is a megalith that isn't going anywhere and can only get bigger. Some analysts have it that China's economy will eventually out produce more than the US'. That'd be some feat wouldn’t it?

There are those in Washington who clearly see the role of the US as an entity that gently (or rather harshly) pushes and prods the world in a direction that maximizes its own benefits. In the past, it was the USSR that stood in our way but their only real threat was MADD (mutually assured destruction) by virtue of an ICBM launched at New York. The Soviets were never an economic threat nor would they ever be.

This War on Terror has really been an opportunity to take advantage of the "Unipolar Moment" and as I've stated in this space many, many times, that moment has come and gone. China is the new USSR without the economic basket case issue. Right now the only two ways China can be knocked down a peg is if either they can't contain its HIV/AIDS issue or there's open rebellion against the totalitarian government. The world won't let the former happen and the Chinese government has plenty of tanks to stop the latter from happening.

So we're right back where we were in the 50's. The Chinese are standing on the other side of the table and they have big tickets to the right dance. Simply put, they've got the manpower and they've got the skyrocketing economy to challenge the US. Provided they don't do something phenomenally stupid and try exterminating a particular race of people (Hitler I'm looking in your direction) they will only get stronger as will their challenge to the US.

Oddly enough, I’m in favor of China challenging the US and providing the stiff economic and diplomatic competition we’ve been sorely lacking. Don’t get me wrong, I still don’t want them to invade Taiwan nor do I want them seriously threatening the US with ICBM’s, however, threat of becoming the engine that drives the world economy is a laudable endeavor. It should (but if this administration is true to form it won’t) push the US to make the right kind of changes so that its not knocked out of its place as the current engine that drives the world economy.

The US also needs “an enemy” to stop it from doing precisely what the “neo-cons” have been alleging is good policy for some time now. Without a counter-balance to stop the US from going overboard (like some say it is in the Mid-East right now). If you look at how we’ve dealt with Iraq/Iran versus how we’ve handled North Korea, the difference is fairly apparent. In the former case there’s been no major backer to seriously stand in the way of the Washington carrying out all kinds of agendas written by wonks whom owe allegiance to Israel, the oil companies or a little bit of both and then some. France and the EU have tried to be the counter-weight to the US but it’s a miserable diplomatic and economic failure. That place is just waiting for the Islamofascists and angry Africans to set the entire continent on fire. The answer here is clearly China. Only in China can there be “an enemy” worthy of saving the US from itself.

Let me reiterate that I’m all in favor of Beijing throwing its weight behind global policy issues such as the de-nuclearization of North Korea so long as that’s as far as it goes. A while back there was scuttlebutt about the Chinese building up its armed forces for a clash with the US because of the clout it was building in the world. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not wishing for a war with the Chinese nor am I rooting against my own country. What I want is a counter-weight, not a new master.

This Goes Out To the One I love

Bondage Bear


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My fiance will get a kick out of this...at least it's better than having Wicket the Ewok as my Star Wars celestial sign.

Hagel: Iraq war has destabilized Mideast, resembles Vietnam

I've said before that I thought invading Iraq was a worthy endeavor but the method we've chosen to do so is lacking in several areas. I hate to say but I agree with Hagel here. Because we've decided to this thing half-assed, as we did in Vietnam (because apparently we don't learn from our mistakes...Mr. Rumsfeld I'm looking in your direction) more soldiers and more innocent Iraqi civilians will probably die. That's sad because it didn't have to be this way.

Granted, my suggestion was to make Baghdad look like Berlin at the end of World War II, which certainly would have meant more dead Iraqi's (which is terrible) but in the final analysis, that was the only way to win this thing. Trying to rebuild the country while we're still bombing it isn't really effective. I've read Bob Woodward's "Bush at War" and I realize that Bush's heart was in the right place in thinking he could protect civilians while outsting the Hussein regime but that was a fools promise. In the end war has to be a devasting, ugly thing or don't bother. Trying any other way to fight the enemy looks like Vietnam, as this does.

Here's the article from CNN:

A leading Republican senator and decorated Vietnam War veteran said Sunday the Iraq war has destabilized the Mideast and is looking more like the Vietnam conflict a generation ago.

Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, who received two Purple Hearts and other military honors for his service in Vietnam, reiterated his position that the United States needs to develop a strategy to leave Iraq.

Hagel scoffed at the idea that U.S. troops could be in Iraq four years from now at levels above 100,000, a contingency for which the Pentagon is preparing.

"We should start figuring out how we get out of there," Hagel said on "This Week" on ABC. "But with this understanding, we cannot leave a vacuum that further destabilizes the Middle East. I think our involvement there has destabilized the Middle East. And the longer we stay there, I think the further destabilization will occur."

Hagel said "stay the course" is not a policy. "By any standard, when you analyze 2 1/2 years in Iraq ... we're not winning," he said.

President Bush was preparing separate speeches this week to reaffirm his plan to help Iraq train its security forces while its leaders build a democratic government. In his weekly Saturday radio address, Bush said the fighting there protected Americans at home.

Polls show the public growing more skeptical about Bush's handling of the war.

In Iraq, officials continued to craft a new constitution in the face of a Monday night deadline for parliamentary approval. They missed the initial deadline last week.

Other Republican senators appearing on Sunday news shows advocated remaining in Iraq until the mission set by Bush is completed, but they also noted that the public is becoming more and more concerned and needs to be reassured.

Sen. George Allen, R-Virginia, disagreed that the U.S. is losing in Iraq. He said a constitution guaranteeing basic freedoms would provide a rallying point for Iraqis.

"I think this is a very crucial time for the future of Iraq," said Allen, also on ABC. "The terrorists don't have anything to win the hearts and minds of the people of Iraq. All they care to do is disrupt."

Hagel, who was among those who advocated sending two to three times as many troops to Iraq when the war began in March 2003, said a stronger military presence by the U.S. is not the solution today.

"We're past that stage now because now we are locked into a bogged-down problem not unsimilar, dissimilar to where we were in Vietnam," Hagel said. "The longer we stay, the more problems we're going to have."

Allen said that unlike the communist-guided North Vietnamese who fought the U.S., the insurgents in Iraq have no guiding political philosophy or organization. Still, Hagel argued, the similarities are growing.

"What I think the White House does not yet understand -- and some of my colleagues -- the dam has broke on this policy," Hagel said. "The longer we stay there, the more similarities (to Vietnam) are going to come together."

The Army's top general, Gen. Peter Schoomaker, said Saturday in an interview with The Associated Press that the Army is planning for the possibility of keeping the current number of soldiers in Iraq -- well over 100,000 -- for four more years as part of preparations for a worst-case scenario.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said U.S. security is tied to success in Iraq, and he counseled people to be patient.

"The worst-case scenario is not staying four years. The worst-case scenario is leaving a dysfunctional, repressive government behind that becomes part of the problem in the war on terror and not the solution," Graham said on "Fox News Sunday."

Allen said the military would be strained at such levels in four years yet could handle that difficult assignment. Hagel described the Army contingency plan as "complete folly."

"I don't know where he's going to get these troops," Hagel said. "There won't be any National Guard left ... no Army Reserve left ... there is no way America is going to have 100,000 troops in Iraq, nor should it, in four years."

Hagel added: "It would bog us down, it would further destabilize the Middle East, it would give Iran more influence, it would hurt Israel, it would put our allies over there in Saudi Arabia and Jordan in a terrible position. It won't be four years. We need to be out."

Sen. Trent Lott, R-Mississippi, said the U.S. is winning in Iraq but has "a way to go" before it meets its goals there. Meanwhile, more needs to be done to lay out the strategy, Lott said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

"I do think we, the president, all of us need to do a better job, do more," Lott said, by telling people "why we have made this commitment, what is being done now, what we do expect in the process and, yes, why it's going to take more time."

New Review: Lipstick Jihad

The following is a brief excerpt from a review posted on PopandPolitics.com:

One of the many casualties in the “War on Terror” has been the dehumanization of our Arab/Muslim/Middle Eastern brothers and sisters. From 9/11 on, the enemy has been categorically identified as Middle Eastern, and anyone who fits that description has also had to defend themselves against being draped with the albatross of “terrorist.”

Somewhere amidst the “Axis of Evil” rhetoric, many people seemed to forget that outside of the mullahs, Wahhabis, and other assorted jihadis, those who live in the Middle East are people just like us Westerners, with the same wants, needs, imperfections and rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

“Lipstick Jihad: A Memoir of Growing up Iranian in America and American in Iran,” by former Time Magazine Middle East reporter, Azadeh Moaveni, is a rare jewel that very much humanizes the aforementioned Middle Eastern people. The book is made up of equal parts memoir of Moaveni’s life both in America and in Iran, and equal parts social history of modern post-Islamic Revolution Iran. Along the way Moaveni not only introduces the reader to the finer points of modern Iran, but also introduces us to her family and friends through amusing anecdotes and poignant observations.

Read more

Venezuela threatens to cut off oil exports to US

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If you thought $2.50/gallon for the cheap stuff was bad, wait until you see what happens if Chavez makes good on his threat to cut off oil exports to the US and instead diverts oil exports to our good friends in Beijing. Let me say this, as much as I'm no fan of the Democrats on both foreign policy and social issues, I'm willing to say right now that I will vote for any person (including Hillary, God help me) that throws the entire weight of the federal government behind alternative fuel sources for transportation and tax incentives for the creation of more, cheaper, hybrid cars.

Do you hear me Washington? I'm now a one issue voter. Anyone whom is sincere in fixing the damn energy problem in the country without being completely beholden to "Big Oil" gets my vote. Now I don't think anyone will actually do it but since I keep getting called out for holding the Republicans water, let me reiterate my position here and now. I think that especially when it comes to our energy and border policies, the Bush administration is near treasonous. It's not incompetency, they are actively working against sane and conservative policies regarding both issues. If ignoring or actively working against solving both of those issues is an impeachable offense then by golly, I'll sign the petition to get it done.

Let me make myself perfectly clear, when it comes to oil and border security, George W. Bush is a monumental disgrace. But don't just take my word for it, here's leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez:

Venezuela has warned it could cut off oil exports to the US if provocations by Washington continue.

In an interview on state-run channel Venezolana de Television, Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Tuesday that a possible boycott of petroleum exports to the US would affect Venezuela, but that would be "the price to pay" to uphold national sovereignty.

"We are willing to do it and ready to defend our rights," he said.

Venezuela, with the world's fifth-largest oil exports, has recently made overtures to China, amid continuing tensions between the US and the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Ramirez said that exports to the US could be diverted to the rapidly expanding Chinese economy. He said 14 fuel cargo ships with a capacity of two million barrels of petroleum went to China last year.

He added that Venezuela would have no problem placing the extra oil on international markets because "the world is avid" for the carbon-based fuels.

Venezuela exports 1.5 million barrels of petroleum and refined products daily to the US.

In recent weeks, the war of words has increased between US President George W Bush's administration and Chavez, a leftwing populist who has forged close relations with Cuba's communist regime.

Last week, Chavez suspended cooperation with the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) after accusing the US of spying on the Venezuelan government.

Chavez has taken to calling Bush "Mr Danger" and describing the Bush administration as the biggest threat to world security.

'Able Danger' Barred From Informing FBI

Thanks to one of my regular commentors, Ottman, for this scoop:

An Army intelligence officer says his unit was blocked in 2000 and 2001 from giving the FBI information about a U.S.-based terrorist cell that included Mohamed Atta, the future leader of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer said the small intelligence unit, called ``Able Danger,'' had identified Atta and three of the other future Sept. 11 hijackers as al-Qaida members by mid-2000. He said military lawyers stopped the unit from sharing the information with the FBI.

The commission investigating the Sept. 11 attacks left the Able Danger claims out of its official report.

In an interview with Fox News Channel and The New York Times, Shaffer said the panel was not given all the information his team had gathered.

``I'm told confidently by the person who did move the material over that the 9/11 commission received two briefcase-size containers of documents,'' Shaffer said in the interview, part of which was aired by Fox News Tuesday night. ``I can tell you for a fact that would not be ... one-20th of the information that Able Danger consisted of during the time we spent.''

Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., vice chairman of the House Armed Services and Homeland Security committees, has said the Sept. 11 commission did not adequately investigate the claim that four of the hijackers had been identified more than a year before the attacks.

Former commission chairman Thomas Kean and vice chairman Lee Hamilton said last week that the military official who made the claim had no documentation to back it up.

Shaffer rejected that remark. ``Leaving a project targeting al-Qaida as a global threat a year before we were attacked by al-Qaida is equivalent to having an investigation of Pearl Harbor and leaving somehow out the Japanese,'' he said.

US, Brazil, India and Russia must back UN moves against genocide

While I am not prone to lambasting my country for the horrible things it does around the world, preferring to instead keep all events in context, there are some instances in which I am overcome with shame. The following article states that the US, among other countries is actually blocking or seeking to water down a proposal by the UN to protect civilians against future instances of societal collapse leading to genocide. I don't think I need to point out the hypocrisy in spewing a bunch of rhetoric regarding freedom and democracy and then seeking to block a measure calling for the protection of civilians (genocide tends to do a good job in preventing freedom and democracy). I don't even know where to begin so here's the article in its entirety:

With one month to go until the UN summit in New York, the US, Brazil, India and Russia have been called upon to back a new agreement designed to stop genocides like Rwanda from ever happening again.

International agency Oxfam has named these powerful countries as they are currently lukewarm to - or are actively blocking - new measures designed to stop atrocities like genocide from taking place. The reforms will be discussed at the UN Summit in New York in exactly one month's time. Other countries seeking to block the measures include Syria, Iran, Cuba, Pakistan, Eqypt and Algeria.

Oxfam is pushing for a strong agreement on the responsibility of states to protect civilians from large-scale atrocities such as genocide and ethnic cleansing. If agreed this would establish a new standard and oblige the international community to act were there to be another Rwanda or a similar mass murder of civilians where the government was unwilling or unable to do anything to stop the bloodshed. The Rwandan government, supported by dozens of others around the world, has led the calls for a strong agreement but those opposing it are refusing to back down.

“It is hard to overstate how important this is. In one months time the biggest meeting of world leaders in history could endorse a new standard which could help stop a future Rwanda from happening. Today we've taken the step of exposing the governments blocking the agreement so people around the world can call on them to change their minds. We urge these governments to urgently reconsider their position and agree to protect civilians from mass murder and atrocities. The international community must never again allow genocide or mass murder to go unchecked,” said Nicola Reindorp, Head of Oxfam in New York.

India, Brazil and Russia are currently actively opposing strong language on the responsibility to protect civilians. Oxfam is also concerned that the US government, although supporting the ‘responsibility to protect' in principle is currently pushing a watered down proposal.

By contrast key governments supporting the call for strong language include Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Nigeria, Kenya, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Canada and the EU.

The current draft outcome document states that the UN has a ‘shared responsibility to take collective action, in a timely and decisive manner,' to, ‘help protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.' However opposition from the blockers could still dilute the commitment rendering it meaningless.

“This is a moral issue of huge importance and will establish a new standard that could help save millions of lives. Those supporting the responsibility of states to protect civilians must stick to their principles and those opposing it must think again. Brazil, India, Russia and the US must play their part in helping to stop the slaughter of thousands of innocent civilians,” added Reindorp.

Contact
For further information contact:
UK: Brendan Cox on cell: + 44 7957 120 853
US: Laura Rusu on + 1 202 496 3620 or cell: + 1 202 459 3739

The current draft wording on the ‘responsibility to protect is below':

* 118. We agree that the protection of populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity lies first and foremost with each individual State. We also agree that this responsibility to protect entails the prevention of such crimes, including their incitement. We accept this responsibility and agree to act in accordance with it. The international community should, as appropriate, encourage and help States to exercise this responsibility and support the efforts of the United Nations to establish an early-warning capability. The international community, through the United Nations, also has the obligation to use diplomatic, humanitarian and other peaceful means, including under Chapters VI and VIII of the Charter to help protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. In this context, we recognize our shared responsibility to take collective action, in a timely and decisive manner, through the Security Council under Chapter VII of the UN Charter and in co-operation with relevant regional organizations, should peaceful means be inadequate and national authorities be unwilling or unable to protect their populations. We stress the need to continue consideration of the concept of the responsibility to protect within the sixtieth session of the General Assembly.

* 119. We invite the permanent members of the Security Council to refrain from using the veto in cases of genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.

* 120. We support the implementation of the United Nations Action Plan to Prevent Genocide and the work of the Secretariat to this end.

http://www.oxfam.org